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May 2007
 
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U.S. Economy: Not on Highway to Hades, but Inflation is Generating Some Intense Heat

Understanding Today's Mortgage Markets

Seattle Bank Yield Curve Optimal Points Analysis

Select Forecasts of Key Economic Statistics

Commentary


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Contacts

Select Forecasts of Key Economic Statistics

Quarterly Estimates
 
Est. 2Q / 3Q 2007 GDP % Change
Est. 2Q / 3Q 2007 Unemployment Rate %
Est. Fed Funds Rate 12.31.07/06.30.08
Est. 10-Year Treasury 12.31.07/06.30.08
Next Release Date
5/31/2007
6/1/2007
-
-
Argus Research - R. Yamarone
3.10/2.90
4.60/4.70
5.25/5.50
4.70/4.78
Bank of America - P. Kretzmer
1.80/1.80
4.70/4.80
5.00/5.00
4.70/4.60
Barclays Capital -
D. Maki
3.00/3.50
4.40/4.30
4.75/6.00
5.05/5.15
Bear Stearns - D. Malpass, R. J. Ryding
2.70/2.90
4.40/4.40
5.50/n/a
5.10/n/a
BNP Paribas - B. Fabbri
1.80/1.50
4.80/5.00
4.00/3.50
4.00/4.35
CSFB - N. Soss
2.20/2.80
4.60/4.70
5.25/5.25
4.25/n/a
Goldman Sachs - E. McKelvey
1.90/1.90
4.60/4.80
4.50/4.50
4.50/4.70
Lehman -
E. Harris
2.70/2.20
4.60/4.70
5.25/5.25
4.80/4.80
MFR - J. Shapiro
2.20/2.40
4.50/4.60
5.25/5.25
4.75/5.00
Morgan Keegan - D. Ratajczak
2.80/2.70
4.50/n/a
5.25/5.25
4.84/5.05
Morgan Stanley - R. Berner
2.40/2.30
4.70/4.80
5.25/5.00
4.90/4.75
University of Michigan - J. Wolfe
2.20/2.30
4.50/4.60
5.25/5.25
4.97/5.13
Wachovia - J. Silvia
2.30/2.70
4.50/4.50
5.25/5.25
4.90/5.15
Averages
2.39/2.45
4.57/4.66
5.13/5.09
4.73/4.86
Previous Month Averages
2.50/n/a
4.60/n/a
5.32/n/a
4.82/n/a
 
Monthly Estimates
 
Est. 4/07 Leading Economic Indicators
Est. 5/07 U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence
Est. 4/07 Durable Goods MTM % Change
Est. 4/07 New Home Sales MTM % Change
Next Release Date
5/17/2007
5/18/2007
5/24/2007
5/24/2007
Argus Research
0.2
88.0
2.5
0.2
Bank of America
-0.1

n/a

1.2
2.0
BNP Paribas
-0.1

85.5

n/a
n/a
Citigroup
-0.3
86.0
-0.8
n/a
Credit Suisse
-0.2
86.0
2.0
1.4
JP Morgan
0.0
85.0
0.8
0.1
Lehman Brothers
0.0
87.0
-0.5
0.2
Morgan Keegan
-0.1
n/a
-0.6
0.7
Morgan Stanley
-0.2
n/a
-0.2
-3.8
Averages
-0.1
86.3
0.6
0.1

 


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