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May 2007
 
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U.S. Economy: Not on Highway to Hades, but Inflation is Generating Some Intense Heat

Understanding Today's Mortgage Markets

Seattle Bank Yield Curve Optimal Points Analysis

Select Forecasts of Key Economic Statistics

Commentary


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U.S. Economy: Not on Highway to Hades, but Inflation is Generating Some Intense Heat

By Richard Yamarone, Director of Economic Research, Argus Research Corp.

The U.S. economy expanded by a much-slower-than-expected 1.3% during the first quarter of 2007. This was the slowest quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2003 (1.2%), and resulted in a year-over-year growth rate of 2.1%. Two of the largest drags on macroeconomic activity during the first quarter were the net exports of goods and services, subtracting a tad more than 0.5% from the overall pace of growth and, unsurprisingly, residential investment, which dragged about 1.0% from the headline figure. After another two revisions, we expect the first-quarter 2007 growth rate to pop back upwards of 2.0%. Had it not been for these two disappointing components, the report would have been impressive for an economy that is this late into an expansion cycle. More >





2007 Management Conference Understanding Today's Mortgage Markets

By Ren S. Essene, MPA, Senior Research Analyst, Join Center for Housing Studies

Today’s mortgage market bears little resemblance to the market of just a decade ago. The widespread utilization of credit scoring and risk-based pricing, the development of a mortgage delivery system dominated by mortgage brokers, and the growing importance of secondary market activities has keyed a virtual revolution in U.S. financial markets. With new low downpayment products and a highly automated mortgage delivery system, the mortgage industry has dramatically expanded access to credit. More >


 
 



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